According to Dr Rochelle
Walensky of the CDC, COVID-19 is expected to become a seasonal illness like
most respiratory viruses that strike during the winter months.
Scientists monitor how prior infection and vaccination might
impact future coronavirus infection and hospitalization rates.
While stricter measures are less likely to return, epidemiologists
say face masks and physical distancing may be recommended when infections spike
in the future.
Earlier this week, the Centers for Disease and Control and
Prevention (CDC)Trusted Source Director Dr Rochelle Walensky said she expects
COVID-19 to become a seasonal illness that ebbs and flows with the weather.
After all, the other coronaviruses that cause the common cold are
known to strike during the winter months and settle down in the warmer months.
The same is true with other respiratory infections, like
influenza, strep throat, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). These viruses
spread year-round but typically spike in the winter.
Epidemiologists say stricter measures — like lockdowns and
capacity limitations at specific venues — are unlikely to return. But masking
and physical distancing may continue to be recommended during future surges.
Will COVID-19 become seasonal?
Dr Shruti Gohil, the associate medical director of epidemiology
and infection prevention at UCI Health, said there does appear to be some
degree of seasonality to COVID-19 already.
As we've seen over the last two years, COVID-19 cases have
increased during the winter months, when cold and flu virus transmission is
often highest.
According to some research, hot and humid environments reduce the
viability of the coronavirus, but colder climates with lower humidity levels
may help the virus spread.
Dr Bernadette Boden-Albala, MPH, DrPH, director and founding dean
of the University of California, Irvine's Program in Public Health, said,
"Research is still evolving, but there is some evidence that the virus dies
when exposed to certain levels of UV light, making it harder to spread during
the sunny summer months as opposed to winter."
Evidence suggests that areas with levels of air pollution are
associated with higher rates of COVID-19 cases, as well as disease severity and
death.
It's also important to consider how our behaviours influence the
spread of respiratory viruses in the different seasons.
Since outside activities are limited in the winter, we spend more
time indoors, where the virus can quickly spread.
When we spend more time indoors, we are closer to others and are
therefore more likely to transmit respiratory viruses.
All that said, data has shown that COVID-19 spreads year-round to
varying degrees.
"It is also clear that COVID should not be considered
restricted to the winter months and that it can appear any time of the
year," Gohil said.
What will happen when COVID-19 cases increase?
According to Gohil, transitioning to an endemic phase of COVID-19
— in which the disease reaches some degree of stability and predictability —
does not mean we won't see new outbreaks, variants, and sporadic increases
COVID-19-related hospitalizations.
It's unclear how many cases and hospitalizations we will see each
year once COVID-19 becomes endemic.
"Right now, it's still hard to tell because we haven't
reached the stability in cases that we need to accurate determine a baseline
level," Boden-Albala said.
Epidemiologists are also tracking how prior infection and
vaccination affect infection rates, hospitalization, and death across the
population.
According to Boden-Albala, public health experts will use disease
modelling tools to make new projections about how the virus will spread in the
future.
If new variants emerge that test the population's immunity through
prior infection and vaccination, we may see some restrictions — like face masks
and physical distancing — return.
Stricter lockdowns, including school and business closures, are
not expected to return.
It's unclear whether and how the coronavirus will mutate and evolve.
For the time being, epidemiologists recommend we stay on top of vaccination
recommendations and follow local and nationwide guidelines to mitigate our
chances of experiencing future surges and more restrictions.
"We anticipate new seasons of increased cases and, yes, some
restrictions may need to be put back into place, at least in modified form, to
meet the needs of any given uptick," Gohil said.
Last but not least
COVID-19 is expected to become a seasonal illness that ebbs and
flows with the weather, according to Dr Rochelle Walensky, director of the CDC.
Most respiratory viruses, including the other coronaviruses that
cause the common cold, are at their peak during the winter.
Scientists monitor how prior infection and vaccination might
impact the case and hospitalization rates in future surges.
Though stricter restrictions, such as lockdowns and school closures, are likely to return, epidemiologists warn that some mitigations, like face masks and physical separation, may be recommended in future outbreaks.