Cases of the Omicron variant of COVID-19 appear to be skyrocketing in certain parts of the United States, just as they did in South Africa a few weeks ago. At the same time, the virus has spread to dozens of countries worldwide. Should we be concerned? Scientists are rushing to make conclusions based on limited data.
1. "Viral Blizzard" Imminent
"With Omicron, we're about to experience a viral blizzard far beyond I've ever seen, except possibly the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic in terms of worldwide distribution," Osterholm said. "Now we're beginning to see it expand at local levels," he added, adding that Omicron is already "globally distributed" in 75 nations.
2. Omicron is "Very Different" in "Important Ways."
According to Osterholm, although Omicron is a variation of the novel coronavirus, it is not the same as the original strain. One characteristic is that it is highly infectious. Another factor is that at least one outbreak has affected many people who have been completely vaccinated.
"We're seeing many reports of outbreaks with high attack rates, even among people who have been completely vaccinated," he said. According to him, between December 6 and 13, 903 COVID cases were found among students at Cornell University in Ithaca, New York. "The Omicron variety caused a very high proportion of the infections in fully vaccinated students," he said. "Some of the students had even had their doses increased."
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3. Three Things Could Happen From Here
According to Osterholm, the pandemic's next chapter could take three forms:
- Omicron and Delta circulate together. If both strains are equally infectious and previous infection with Delta did not provide immunity to Omicron, this is the most likely scenario to develop. "We've seen this happen with flu strains," Osterholm explained, "which is why your seasonal flu vaccines contain multiple strains."
- Omicron becomes the dominant COVID strain. "This is most likely to happen if Omicron is naturally more infectious and the Delta specific strain has significant cross-protection," he said.
- Omicron dies away after an Omicron wave, followed by a comeback of Delta. "If Omicron is not inherently more infectious, even if it has a higher immune escape," or the ability to reinfect, he said, "this would be the most likely to happen."
"Only time will tell which of these possibilities will come true," Osterholm remarked. "We're in the middle of a viral battle: Omicron vs Delta, and we're not sure how it'll play out yet."
4. Omicron Seems Less Severe—But Maybe Not For This Group
According to Osterholm, early data from South Africa from the first three weeks of Omicron showed that hospitalization was 29 per cent lower for Omicron than the first wave of COVID. "After normalizing for vaccination status, it's obvious that the Omicron variant isn't causing the same level of severe illness as previous waves," he added.
However, he noted that it's uncertain whether Omicron causes more severe sickness in children. People under 18 are treated to South African hospitals in more significant numbers than during previous variant surges.
5. Reinfection Possible
According to Osterholm, evidence from South Africa reveals that the Omicron form has a "three to eightfold greater risk of reinfection than prior variants."
What this indicates is that: "Those who maintain that past infection is sufficient for long-term protection: the evidence is clear and compelling. That isn't the case at all. Vaccines are required even for persons who have previously been sick."
6. How to Stay Safe Out There
No matter where you live, get vaccinated as soon as possible; if you live in an area with low vaccination rates, wear an N95 face mask, avoid large crowds, don't go indoors with people you aren't sheltering with (especially in bars), practice good hand hygiene.
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